Anorais looking more and more like the 2025 Oscars' Best Picture winner, especially in light of its success at WGA on June 22, 2025. Since the awards season kicked off, well underway by the time the delayed2025 Oscars nominationswere announced,Anorahas danced in and out of the discussion of the serious contenders for Best Picture. The comedy-drama about a sex worker who spontaneously marries a client may lack some of the big-scale, epic feel of some of its competitors, butAnora, Conclave, The Brutalist, andEmilia Pérezall seem to be possible winners in the2025 Oscars tier ranking.
DespiteAnorabeing simultaneously hilarious and heartbreaking, and generally being where this season sees an intersection between audience adoration and true frontrunner status, the Oscars is a complicated gameof appealing to critics outside the film itself and winning major precursor awards.Emilia Pérez’s shocking 13 nominationsinitially made it seem like the most logical film to bet on, butAnorahas picked up some surprising wins since then. It secured a particularly valuable award at WGA, helping it pave a strategic path to Best Picture.
Anora’s WGA Win For Original Screenplay Is Great For Its Oscars Hopes
Anora Has Been Recognized For Its Stellar Writing
The Writers Guild of America bestowed uponAnoraone of its two top prizes, the win for Best Original Screenplay, withNickel Boyswinning Best Adapted Screenplay. Moreover,Anorawon at both the Producers Guild and Directors Guild awards, in which it was competing largely against other2025 Oscars Best Picture nominees. The only movie to ever win at WGA, PGA, and DGA and then lose Best Picture at the Oscars isBrokeback Mountain— a loss that is inherently divisive when the infamousCrashwon instead.
Demi Moore Has All The Oscars Momentum, But Don’t Count Out Mikey Madison Winning Best Actress
Demi Moore seems to be the Oscars frontrunner following her Golden Globe win, but Mikey Madison still has a chance at Best Actress.
SoAnorais seemingly on a direct path to Best Picture, also considering its upset win at the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards. After winning nothing else the entire night, including Best Screenplay, which went toThe Substance,Anoratook home the Critics' Choice Award for Best Picture.Anora’s castis also nominated across the board by the SAG Awards, another precursor that could affect the outcome at the Oscars.Most awarding bodies that have some overlap with Academy voters are selectingAnoraas the equivalent of Best Picture,which points to only one logical conclusion.
Anora Winning Best Original Screenplay Would Bolster Its Best Picture Odds
One Of The Two Oscars Screenplay Winners Is Often The Best Picture Winner
However, to win Best Picture,Anoralikely needs to conquer Best Original Screenplay first. Only six times since 2000 has the Academy chosen a Best Picture winner that did not win in one of its two screenplay categories as well.Conclaveis a foregone conclusion for Best Adapted Screenplay, butAnorabeing favored by WGA, the awarding body that concentrates on writing, is a great endorsement for it to win the same at the Oscars. Notably,Conclavewas not nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay by WGA due to eligibility rules, allowingNickel Boysto win.
Conclave is a foregone conclusion for Best Adapted Screenplay, but Anora being favored by WGA, the awarding body that concentrates on writing, is a great endorsement for it to win the same at the Oscars.
Likewise,The Substance, apparentlyAnora’s biggest competition for screenplay at the Oscars, was not nominated by WGA either. It’s obvious that different awards bodies will consider entirely different things to be the top offerings, butifThe Substancehad been nominated at WGA, the competition would have been different and might have led to the Academy voting for its script overAnora.However, the writers of Hollywood have now spoken, and even if more critics liked the zany nature ofThe Substance, the Academy may be inclined to acknowledge the (slightly) more serious selection.
Anora’s WGA Win Continues Its Strong Resurgence As The Best Picture Frontrunner
Anora Is Picking Up Momentum Again
WhileAnoramay have started out the season as the apparent Best Picture winner, it dropped off somewhat following the Golden Globes, which sawThe Brutalistwin in Drama andEmilia Pérezin Comedy or Musical. It lost Best Screenplay toConclavewhen the two were not considered in separate categories. Demi Moore also overtook Mikey Madison as the favored star to win Best Actress. However,Anorasuddenly came back, with the shocking turn of events at the Critics' Choice Awards and then consistently winning everywhere else,and no one can count it out any longer.
The Substance
Sing Sing
While the Golden Globes seemed to indicate otherwise,Anorahas now proven that it can take onConclave, The Substance, andEmilia Pérez.Anora’s campaign is also benefiting from the widespread audiences that want to see it win. Sean Baker has written and directed multiple powerful movies before that always somehow missed out on the Oscars, andAnoracould be the chance to recognize him for his entire career. Based on simple statistics, it is essentially impossible forAnorato not win, especially when the Critics' Choice Awards saw multiple surprises this year, suggestingAnoralosing screenplay there was an anomaly.
